Market Analysis Myths

[DeanRichards]

I think some of the "conventional wisdom" I see here about market analysis is wrong and I'd like to challenge it. And because I don't want to be just another idiot mouthing off in a forum, I'm going to lay it all out in the open for everyone to see. In fact, if anyone serious about these issues wants to PM me, I'll even give you my keywords and URL so you can confirm everything for yourself.

This is a site I've owned for some time and is, in fact, one of the first sites I ever made (that shows in many ways). I bought the domain and built the site long before I knew about Market Samurai and PBR or even any sort of proper analysis.

First, the keyword analysis from Market Samurai. This is a three word phrase and I ran all the permutations. My theme keywords are in the top position and my domain is onetwothree.com. The "proper" (82%) order is two-one-three.



"Conventional wisdom" would say that a PBR of 4% would mean I should really only expect to see 4% of the SEOT of 456 if I had the #1 site.

Here's the competition matrix:



That's me at #6 - I was #1 for quite some time, but the new algor immediately dropped me to 8 and now I'm back up to 6. As you can see, I'm the only one with proper on page optimization (thanks to the low PBR no one else is actually targeting this exact phrase). The domain age is, in fact, about 1.5 years.

Again, conventional wisdom suggests the breakdown of traffic by position is:


#1 = 42.1%

#2 = 11.9%

#3 = 8.5%

#4 = 6.1%

#5 = 4.9%

#6 = 4.1%

#7 = 3.4%

So the total number of searches for my keywords (broad - how people really search) is 1,088. Site #1 should get 42.1% of that which more or less matches the SEOT of 456 showing in Market Samurai. But I'm at #6 so that would put me at 44 visitors a day... but the PBR of 4% means I should only get 4% of that 44 or basically 1-2 visitors a day.

Here are my stats:



As you can see, except for today (late reporting) I'm actually averaging just over 80 visits a day.

So there is obviously a problem with the "predicted" value of 1-2 visitors a day.

Now I'm not saying that we can throw all these math based predictions out the window. What I'm saying (and I believe this is true of all 'web research') is that you can't get too wrapped up in the numbers and doing all sorts of "math analysis" to extend the actual numbers from Google is not necessarily a good idea.

I'm also saying that Market Samurai isn't the be all and end all of market research. It's a wonderful tool and I use it every day and recommend it to everyone, but you have to pull your nose out of MS and go to the ranking sites and see if you think you can compete. In other words, you have to use some common sense.

Would I go for keywords with 4% PBR again? Probably not (mostly because it is too easy to find better numbers anyway) but I might if they made sense to me knowing what I do about broad match vs. phrase match and the nature of all the other factors involved. And if this was a niche I was trying to dominate, I would definitely buy all of the permutations that get any traffic at all.

At the end of the day, it is all a crap shoot, which is why we test our niches first before we commit a lot of resources to them.

Thanks for listening and I'd love to hear from others who have the numbers to show what they've experienced.

[Matthias]

Thanks Dean, I really appreciate your effort to explain your point of view.

Your visitor/day stats - do they show only the traffic for the exact search phrase or do they include all your long-tail traffic?

[Hotsocks]

Thanks Dean, I always enjoy your posts.

I don't have much else to add other than saying while MS is a great tool, nothing beats getting out there and ranking a site to find out first hand.

I'd much rather have it than not have it though!

[DeanRichards]

Originally Posted by Matthias

Thanks Dean, I really appreciate your effort to explain your point of view.

Your visitor/day stats - do they show only the traffic for the exact search phrase or do they include all your long-tail traffic?

It's my broad match traffic for my theme keywords. What I should have also said is that my traffic didn't really pick up until I hit PR1. Obviously, you're not going to build 500+ IC and 700+ backlinks in 30 days (unless you're blog farming or doing other fairly high level stuff). But once you get some authority, then your low PBR is less important. What my experience shows with this and a couple of other low PBR phrases I've tried, is that sometimes a low PBR phrase can be a sort of back door into a higher PBR phrase.

Again, I'm not saying forget PBR. What I'm really saying is don't think all these numbers are real life.

All the stuff in Market Samurai is like a map. When we do our research, we're really just drawing ourselves a map. And if you want to get to a place you're never been to before, having a good map is going to make getting there a lot easier than if you didn't have a map. But the map is not the road. Having a map isn't the same thing as actually making the journey. Looking at a map of London isn't the same thing as standing in Leicester Square.

[Ingram]

Hi Dean

Another great post and interesting read.

I completely agree that we get wrapped up in the stats and this can often be a wall that stops us from even starting to build a new blog.

I also agree that although I love MS, it's so important to look around you and see what's going on in the world, not just Google, as there are things that you will pick up just because they feel right. And if you can back up that feeling with stats that look ok then it's worth trying it out.

[OnlineDesignSales]

Originally Posted by DeanRichards

So the total number of searches for my keywords (broad - how people really search) is 1,088. Site #1 should get 42.1% of that which more or less matches the SEOT of 456 showing in Market Samurai. But I'm at #6 so that would put me at 44 visitors a day... but the PBR of 4% means I should only get 4% of that 44 or basically 1-2 visitors a day.

Your sums predict the incoming traffic from phrase matched searches only.

These wouldn't take into account any traffic that is coming through from broad matches.

Maybe I am missing something, I feel sick today and things aren't calculating in my head correctly...

...also the predictions would only be for traffic coming from Google searches and won't take into account any links that you may have in other articles etc.